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Winter News 2016 – Industrial Real Estate Profits
The current cycle is being propelled by three major conditions: Space Scarcity, Capital Markets Pressure and Rent Surge. Market dynamics are still very favorable for development and will only be disrupted if demand begins to weaken. Otherwise, strong fundamentals are the prevalent condition in most major U.S. markets.
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Notes From the 2015 SIOR Fall Conference in Chicago
Here are a few notes from the SIOR Fall Convention 2015 that was held in Chicago this past weekend, October 8-10.
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Fall News 2015
The major theme in this stage of the cycle is space shortage. There are very few available buildings to lease or purchase. This has caused strong rent growth throughout the region. This is a national condition and all major industrial markets are suffering from a shortage of vacant buildings.
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Big Industrial Land
Introduction
This is clearly an exciting market, finally. Land and buildings are trading robustly in all corners of US Industrial.. There are three reasons to explain the activity – moderate growth; dearth of recent, new construction; and lots of institutional finance. There is virtually no product available, especially for newer generation buildings. As far as capital, it’s a wave of money that wants to be invested in industrial.
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Where The Deals Are II
Over the past year I have had the privilege of interviewing many of the top dealmakers in the industry. I moderated 3 panels and got to know many of the panelists individually. The dealmakers are mostly Senior Vice Presidents, Chief Executive Officers, or Chairmen from the top industrial REITS and national development companies. I pre-interviewed everyone and this is where I learned the most. I also had great personal interactions at the conferences and met many more developers in high places.
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I.CON ’15: The Industrial Conference
I had an excellent experience this week attending NAIOP I.CON, the Industrial Conference that was held in Long Beach. I had a significant role co-leading the “Follow the Freight” Tour that took place around the Long Beach Harbor. But also moderated the kick-off panel with the biggest developers in the country. I gave it a humorous sports theme that made it a little different. Audio will be available shortly that I hope I will be able to post.
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What I learned in Scottsdale
A brief summary of the Industrial Deal Makers Panel follows below:
Industrial Deal Maker Panel – SIOR Scottsdale Conference
Here is a preview of the panel we’ll be having in Scottsdale this week. I’ll post notes and the audio as soon as it is ready. All slides are in pdf format. klein SIOR presentation
ONE-HOUR WAREHOUSE
As I was driving around Dallas last month looking at Big Industrial there was news that Amazon was about to offer-one hour delivery to selected zip codes. Dallas Morning News has a good story with the reasoning behind it. The important part for real estate location is how Amazon and others like them pick their zip codes for the roll out of the new service. Density is the primary factor. If you are 40 minutes away from the densest areas with multi-story housing, you can’t make too big a mistake. Other location criteria is still experimental, as-is many of the theories behind ecommerce location. If one-day service is successful, there will be many corollary locations in other cities. Real estate people like myself are watching the ecommerce evolution carefully.
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